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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Aug 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 217 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Aug 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 05/0936Z from Region 3380 (S10, L=125). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (06 Aug, 07 Aug) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day three (08 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 470 km/s at 05/1017Z. Total IMF reached 25 nT at 05/0230Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -23 nT at 05/0226Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 18 pfu at 05/1745Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 106 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (06 Aug, 07 Aug) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (08 Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev are expected to cross threshold on day one (06 Aug) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (07 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Aug to 08 Aug
Class M55%55%35%
Class X10%10%05%
Proton75%20%05%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Aug 176
  Predicted   06 Aug-08 Aug 170/168/166
  90 Day Mean        05 Aug 166

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Aug   NA/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Aug  027/037
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Aug-08 Aug  009/010-009/012-014/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Aug to 08 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%40%
Minor storm10%05%30%
Major-severe storm01%01%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%30%
Major-severe storm20%20%50%

All times in UTC

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