Viewing archive of Saturday, 5 August 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Aug 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 217 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Aug 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
05/0936Z from Region 3380 (S10, L=125). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (06 Aug,
07 Aug) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day
three (08 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 470 km/s at 05/1017Z. Total IMF
reached 25 nT at 05/0230Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-23 nT at 05/0226Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 18 pfu at 05/1745Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 106 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (06 Aug, 07 Aug) and
quiet to minor storm levels on day three (08 Aug). Protons greater than
10 Mev are expected to cross threshold on day one (06 Aug) and have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (07 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Aug to 08 Aug
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 35% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 75% | 20% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Aug 176 Predicted 06 Aug-08 Aug 170/168/166 90 Day Mean 05 Aug 166
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Aug NA/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Aug 027/037 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Aug-08 Aug 009/010-009/012-014/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Aug to 08 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 50% |
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