Viewing archive of Wednesday, 12 July 2023

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jul 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jul 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at 12/0855Z from Region 3372 (N24E65). There are currently 12 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (13 Jul, 14 Jul) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (15 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 356 km/s at 12/0044Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 11/2114Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 12/1146Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 796 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (13 Jul, 14 Jul) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (15 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (13 Jul, 14 Jul, 15 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jul to 15 Jul
Class M55%55%50%
Class X20%20%15%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Jul 193
  Predicted   13 Jul-15 Jul 190/188/188
  90 Day Mean        12 Jul 159

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jul  008/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Jul  008/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul  010/012-012/014-016/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jul to 15 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%40%
Minor storm15%10%25%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%25%15%
Minor storm30%25%30%
Major-severe storm30%20%40%

All times in UTC

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