Viewing archive of Wednesday, 12 July 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jul 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jul 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at
12/0855Z from Region 3372 (N24E65). There are currently 12 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (13 Jul,
14 Jul) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a
slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (15 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 356 km/s at 12/0044Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
11/2114Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
12/1146Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 796 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (13 Jul, 14 Jul) and
quiet to minor storm levels on day three (15 Jul). Protons have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (13 Jul, 14
Jul, 15 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jul to 15 Jul
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 50% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Jul 193 Predicted 13 Jul-15 Jul 190/188/188 90 Day Mean 12 Jul 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jul 008/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jul 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul 010/012-012/014-016/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jul to 15 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 20% | 40% |
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