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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jul 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 187 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jul 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 06/1049Z from Region 3354. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (07 Jul, 08 Jul, 09 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 496 km/s at 06/1638Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 06/1041Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 06/0913Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1260 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (07 Jul), unsettled to active levels on day two (08 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day three (09 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Jul to 09 Jul
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Jul 158
  Predicted   07 Jul-09 Jul 155/150/150
  90 Day Mean        06 Jul 157

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jul  009/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Jul  009/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Jul-09 Jul  016/020-014/018-013/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jul to 09 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%30%30%
Minor storm25%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm30%25%25%
Major-severe storm35%20%20%

All times in UTC

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