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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jun 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 160 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jun 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 09/1711Z from Region 3331 (S22E37). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Jun, 11 Jun, 12 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 366 km/s at 09/1327Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 09/1112Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 09/1808Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 253 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (10 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (11 Jun, 12 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Jun to 12 Jun
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Jun 164
  Predicted   10 Jun-12 Jun 163/157/160
  90 Day Mean        09 Jun 152

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jun  006/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Jun  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Jun-12 Jun  005/005-007/010-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jun to 12 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%15%10%
Minor storm01%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%20%20%
Major-severe storm05%10%15%

All times in UTC

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