Viewing archive of Tuesday, 10 January 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jan 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 10 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jan 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
10/0016Z from Region 3186 (N25E65). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Jan, 12
Jan, 13 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 416 km/s at 10/1321Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 10/1426Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
10/1348Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 564 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (11 Jan) and quiet levels
on days two and three (12 Jan, 13 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (11 Jan, 12 Jan, 13 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Jan to 13 Jan
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jan 193 Predicted 11 Jan-13 Jan 192/190/188 90 Day Mean 10 Jan 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jan 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jan 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jan-13 Jan 008/008-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jan to 13 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 20% | 20% |
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