Viewing archive of Monday, 9 January 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jan 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 9 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jan 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
09/1850Z from Region 3184 (S14E67). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Jan, 11
Jan, 12 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 451 km/s at 09/0456Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
09/2059Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
09/1924Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 301 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (10 Jan, 11 Jan)
and quiet levels on day three (12 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (10 Jan, 11 Jan, 12 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Jan to 12 Jan
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Jan 191 Predicted 10 Jan-12 Jan 192/190/190 90 Day Mean 09 Jan 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jan 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jan 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jan-12 Jan 006/008-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jan to 12 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 40% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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| Last M-flare | 2024/05/19 | M1.6 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/05/17 | Kp6 (G2) |
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