Viewing archive of Monday, 7 November 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Nov 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 311 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Nov 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
07/0011Z from Region 3141 (N14E39). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (08 Nov, 09 Nov, 10 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 429 km/s at 07/1603Z. Total IMF
reached 15 nT at 07/1655Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-14 nT at 07/1658Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 9398 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (08 Nov, 09
Nov, 10 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Nov to 10 Nov
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Nov 135 Predicted 08 Nov-10 Nov 135/130/130 90 Day Mean 07 Nov 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Nov 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Nov 016/022 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov 011/012-010/012-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Nov to 10 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 45% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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