Viewing archive of Saturday, 8 October 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Oct 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 281 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Oct 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
08/0040Z from Region 3112 (N22W16). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (09 Oct, 10 Oct, 11 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 553 km/s at 08/1722Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 08/0410Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
08/1602Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3556 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (09 Oct, 10 Oct)
and quiet levels on day three (11 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Oct to 11 Oct
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Oct 157 Predicted 09 Oct-11 Oct 156/156/156 90 Day Mean 08 Oct 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Oct 012/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Oct 011/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Oct-11 Oct 009/010-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Oct to 11 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 20% | 10% |
Latest news
Saturday, 11 May 2024
Strongest geomagnetic storm since 2003, X5.8 solar flare
Saturday, 11 May 2024
Extreme G5 geomagnetic storm
Friday, 10 May 2024
Severe G4 geomagnetic storm
Latest forum messages
May 2024 Geomagnetic Storms from AR 13664 (2) 28Sorry for putting the forum down 8Unproven theories 401Traffic record broken!(?) Updated! 11Aurora scatter? 4
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/05/11 | X1.5 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/05/11 | M1.2 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/05/10 | Kp9 (G5) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| April 2024 | 136.5 +31.6 |
| May 2024 | 139.8 +3.3 |
| Last 30 days | 173.6 +82.2 |