Viewing archive of Friday, 7 October 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Oct 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 280 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Oct 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
07/1444Z from Region 3116 (N29E00). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(08 Oct, 09 Oct, 10 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 587 km/s at 07/1826Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 07/1221Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
07/1204Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2903 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (08 Oct) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (09 Oct, 10 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Oct to 10 Oct
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Oct 160 Predicted 08 Oct-10 Oct 160/158/156 90 Day Mean 07 Oct 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Oct 014/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Oct 015/017 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Oct-10 Oct 009/012-009/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Oct to 10 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 15% | 20% |
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| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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