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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Apr 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 100 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Apr 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 10/0241Z from Region 2978 (S17W0*). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Apr, 12 Apr, 13 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 537 km/s at 10/1350Z. Total IMF reached 18 nT at 10/0248Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -15 nT at 10/0317Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 623 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (11 Apr) and quiet levels on days two and three (12 Apr, 13 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Apr to 13 Apr
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Apr 101
  Predicted   11 Apr-13 Apr 098/095/095
  90 Day Mean        10 Apr 113

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Apr  017/020
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Apr  024/035
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Apr-13 Apr  011/012-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Apr to 13 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%15%15%
Minor storm10%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%20%20%
Major-severe storm40%20%20%

All times in UTC

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