Viewing archive of Monday, 14 March 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Mar 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 73 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Mar 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
14/0840Z from Region 2965 (N24W03). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Mar, 16 Mar,
17 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 493 km/s at 13/2251Z. Total IMF
reached 24 nT at 14/0643Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-23 nT at 13/2214Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 186 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (15 Mar) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (16 Mar, 17 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Mar to 17 Mar
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Mar 115 Predicted 15 Mar-17 Mar 116/114/116 90 Day Mean 14 Mar 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Mar 030/045 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Mar 015/019 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar 011/014-008/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Mar to 17 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 30% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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