Viewing archive of Monday, 17 January 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jan 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 17 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jan 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
17/1415Z from Region 2930 (N21W45). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (18 Jan,
19 Jan, 20 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 628 km/s at 16/2127Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 17/0504Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
16/2102Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2021 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (18 Jan, 20
Jan) and quiet levels on day two (19 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Jan to 20 Jan
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Jan 114 Predicted 18 Jan-20 Jan 114/110/108 90 Day Mean 17 Jan 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jan 016/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jan 008/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jan-20 Jan 010/010-006/005-007/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jan to 20 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 20% | 25% |
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