Viewing archive of Sunday, 16 January 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jan 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 16 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
16/1945Z from Region 2929 (N08W30). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (17 Jan) and likely to
be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three
(18 Jan, 19 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 642 km/s at 16/0249Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 15/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 15/2343Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 2283 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (17 Jan), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (18 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (19
Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jan to 19 Jan
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jan 119 Predicted 17 Jan-19 Jan 115/115/110 90 Day Mean 16 Jan 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan 017/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jan 014/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan 015/018-010/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan to 19 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 30% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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