Viewing archive of Friday, 15 October 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Oct 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Oct 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (16 Oct) and
expected to be very low on days two and three (17 Oct, 18 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 386 km/s at 15/0526Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
14/2233Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
14/2249Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 430 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (16 Oct), quiet levels on
day two (17 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (18 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Oct to 18 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Oct 084 Predicted 16 Oct-18 Oct 082/080/080 90 Day Mean 15 Oct 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Oct 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Oct 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct 008/008-006/005-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Oct to 18 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 20% | 35% |
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