Viewing archive of Thursday, 14 October 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Oct 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
14/0134Z. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Oct,
16 Oct, 17 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 414 km/s at 13/2308Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
14/1424Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
14/1558Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 284 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (15 Oct, 16 Oct)
and quiet levels on day three (17 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Oct to 17 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Oct 083 Predicted 15 Oct-17 Oct 082/080/078 90 Day Mean 14 Oct 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Oct 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct 006/008-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct to 17 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
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