Viewing archive of Sunday, 4 July 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Jul 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 185 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jul 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
04/0509Z from Region 2838 (N24, L=099). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 Jul,
06 Jul, 07 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 402 km/s at 03/2147Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 173 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (05 Jul, 06 Jul)
and quiet levels on day three (07 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jul to 07 Jul
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jul 091 Predicted 05 Jul-07 Jul 090/090/085 90 Day Mean 04 Jul 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jul 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jul 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jul-07 Jul 009/010-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jul to 07 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
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