Viewing archive of Saturday, 3 July 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Jul 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 184 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jul 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
03/1429Z from Region 2838 (N24W88). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on day one (04 Jul) and expected to be
low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class
flare on day two (05 Jul) and likely to be low with a slight chance for
an M-class flare on day three (06 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 517 km/s at 03/0027Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 190 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (04 Jul,
05 Jul, 06 Jul). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing
threshold on day one (04 Jul) and have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on day two (05 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Jul to 06 Jul
| Class M | 55% | 35% | 15% |
| Class X | 25% | 15% | 05% |
| Proton | 25% | 15% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Jul 094 Predicted 04 Jul-06 Jul 094/092/092 90 Day Mean 03 Jul 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jul 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jul 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jul-06 Jul 008/008-009/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jul to 06 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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