Viewing archive of Saturday, 15 May 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 May 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 135 Issued at 2200Z on 15 May 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (16
May, 17 May, 18 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 479 km/s at 15/0949Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 15/0446Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
15/0543Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 192 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (16 May), quiet to active levels on day
two (17 May) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (18 May).
III. Event Probabilities 16 May to 18 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 May 073 Predicted 16 May-18 May 073/073/077 90 Day Mean 15 May 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 May 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 May 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May 006/005-008/012-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 May to 18 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 45% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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