Viewing archive of Friday, 14 May 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 May 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 14 May 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 May,
16 May, 17 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 420 km/s at 13/2225Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
14/2031Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
14/1937Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 197 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (15 May, 16 May) and quiet to
active levels on day three (17 May).
III. Event Probabilities 15 May to 17 May
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 May 071 Predicted 15 May-17 May 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 14 May 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 May 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 May 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May 006/005-006/005-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 May to 17 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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