Viewing archive of Sunday, 7 March 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Mar 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 66 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Mar 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (08 Mar, 09 Mar, 10 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 575 km/s at 07/0358Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 07/1932Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
07/1556Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1419 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (08 Mar, 09 Mar)
and quiet levels on day three (10 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Mar to 10 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Mar 078 Predicted 08 Mar-10 Mar 076/072/070 90 Day Mean 07 Mar 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Mar 011/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Mar 009/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Mar-10 Mar 007/005-007/005-007/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Mar to 10 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 40% | 30% |
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