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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Mar 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 65 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Mar 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (07 Mar, 08 Mar, 09 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 599 km/s at 06/1528Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 06/0305Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 06/0141Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3065 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (08 Mar, 09 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Mar to 09 Mar
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Mar 077
  Predicted   07 Mar-09 Mar 077/077/075
  90 Day Mean        06 Mar 078

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Mar  005/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Mar  016/018
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Mar-09 Mar  013/015-007/010-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Mar to 09 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%25%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm40%40%40%

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