Viewing archive of Thursday, 4 March 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Mar 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 63 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Mar 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (05 Mar, 06 Mar, 07 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 604 km/s at 04/0019Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 04/0843Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
04/0001Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 6727 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (05 Mar), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (06 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (07 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Mar to 07 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Mar 081 Predicted 05 Mar-07 Mar 080/078/075 90 Day Mean 04 Mar 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Mar 015/022 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Mar 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Mar-07 Mar 007/010-018/020-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Mar to 07 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 25% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 65% | 40% |
Latest news
Monday, 13 May 2024
M6.6 solar flare with earth-directed CME
Sunday, 12 May 2024
Small CME impact, Record visitor amount
Saturday, 11 May 2024
Strongest geomagnetic storm since 2003, X5.8 solar flare
Latest forum messages
AR 3676 26May 2024 Geomagnetic Storms from AR 13664 (2) 285AR3664 856Space Weather Memes 354Could Cycle 25 be categorized as "historical"? 9
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/05/12 | X1.02 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/05/13 | M1.5 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/05/12 | Kp7 (G3) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| April 2024 | 136.5 +31.6 |
| May 2024 | 144.3 +7.8 |
| Last 30 days | 176 +81.6 |