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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Mar 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 62 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Mar 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 03/0003Z from Region 2807 (S18E29). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (04 Mar, 05 Mar, 06 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 692 km/s at 03/0350Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 02/2227Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 03/0011Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4797 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (04 Mar, 05 Mar) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (06 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Mar to 06 Mar
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Mar 074
  Predicted   04 Mar-06 Mar 075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        03 Mar 078

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Mar  014/021
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Mar  017/025
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Mar-06 Mar  008/010-007/010-018/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Mar to 06 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%40%
Minor storm10%10%25%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm30%30%25%
Major-severe storm40%40%65%

All times in UTC

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