Viewing archive of Sunday, 23 August 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Aug 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 236 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Aug 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (24 Aug, 25 Aug, 26 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 409 km/s at 23/2051Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 23/1308Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
22/2203Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 134 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (24 Aug), quiet to active levels on day
two (25 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (26 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Aug to 26 Aug
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Aug 071 Predicted 24 Aug-26 Aug 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 23 Aug 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Aug 013/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Aug 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Aug-26 Aug 007/008-011/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Aug to 26 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 35% | 30% |
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