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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Aug 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 236 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Aug 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (24 Aug, 25 Aug, 26 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 409 km/s at 23/2051Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 23/1308Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 22/2203Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 134 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (24 Aug), quiet to active levels on day two (25 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (26 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Aug to 26 Aug
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Aug 071
  Predicted   24 Aug-26 Aug 070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        23 Aug 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Aug  013/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Aug  007/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Aug-26 Aug  007/008-011/012-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Aug to 26 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%30%25%
Minor storm01%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%30%30%
Major-severe storm20%35%30%

All times in UTC

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