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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Aug 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 235 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Aug 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (23 Aug, 24 Aug, 25 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 364 km/s at 22/0131Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 22/0926Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 22/1653Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 151 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (23 Aug, 24 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (25 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Aug to 25 Aug
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Aug 070
  Predicted   23 Aug-25 Aug 069/069/069
  90 Day Mean        22 Aug 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Aug  005/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Aug  005/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Aug-25 Aug  007/006-006/006-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Aug to 25 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%20%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm25%25%30%
Major-severe storm20%20%25%

All times in UTC

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