Viewing archive of Saturday, 15 August 2020

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Aug 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 228 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Aug 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 15/0647Z from Region 2770 (N26W85). There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (16 Aug, 17 Aug, 18 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 311 km/s at 15/0157Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 631 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (16 Aug, 17 Aug, 18 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Aug to 18 Aug
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Aug 071
  Predicted   16 Aug-18 Aug 071/070/070
  90 Day Mean        15 Aug 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Aug  003/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Aug  003/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug  005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Aug to 18 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%

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