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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Mar 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 61 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Mar 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (02 Mar, 03 Mar, 04 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 575 km/s at 29/2314Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 29/2236Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
29/2159Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 342 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (02 Mar) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (03 Mar, 04 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Mar to 04 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Mar 069 Predicted 02 Mar-04 Mar 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 01 Mar 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Feb 008/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Mar 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Mar-04 Mar 010/012-009/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Mar to 04 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 25% | 20% |
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