Viewing archive of Saturday, 29 February 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Feb 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 60 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Feb 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (01 Mar, 02 Mar, 03 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 787 km/s at 29/0641Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 29/1526Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
29/1141Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 684 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (01 Mar, 02 Mar) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (03 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Mar to 03 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Feb 070 Predicted 01 Mar-03 Mar 071/071/071 90 Day Mean 29 Feb 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Feb 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Feb 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar 011/012-010/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar to 03 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 35% | 20% |
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