Viewing archive of Thursday, 27 February 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Feb 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 58 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Feb 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (28 Feb, 29 Feb, 01 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 381 km/s at 27/1410Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1141 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (28 Feb), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (29 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (01 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Feb to 01 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Feb 071 Predicted 28 Feb-01 Mar 071/071/071 90 Day Mean 27 Feb 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Feb 003/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Feb 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Feb-01 Mar 006/005-007/008-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Feb to 01 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 20% | 35% |
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