Viewing archive of Friday, 31 January 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Jan 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 31 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jan 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (01 Feb, 02 Feb, 03 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 557 km/s at 31/0933Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 31/0221Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
31/0215Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 334 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (01 Feb) and quiet levels on
days two and three (02 Feb, 03 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Feb to 03 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Jan 074 Predicted 01 Feb-03 Feb 074/072/070 90 Day Mean 31 Jan 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jan 009/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jan 007/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb 011/010-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Feb to 03 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 10% | 10% |
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