Viewing archive of Tuesday, 28 January 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Jan 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 28 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jan 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (29 Jan, 30 Jan, 31 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 373 km/s at 28/1947Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
28/1947Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
28/1936Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 151 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (29 Jan, 30 Jan)
and quiet levels on day three (31 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Jan to 31 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Jan 074 Predicted 29 Jan-31 Jan 074/074/074 90 Day Mean 28 Jan 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jan 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jan 005/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jan-31 Jan 007/010-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jan to 31 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 20% | 10% |
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