Viewing archive of Monday, 27 January 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Jan 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 27 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jan 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (28
Jan, 29 Jan, 30 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 439 km/s at 27/0806Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
27/0353Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
27/0309Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 301 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (28 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (29 Jan, 30 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Jan to 30 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Jan 073 Predicted 28 Jan-30 Jan 073/073/073 90 Day Mean 27 Jan 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jan 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jan 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jan-30 Jan 006/005-007/010-009/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jan to 30 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 25% | 25% |
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