Viewing archive of Tuesday, 24 December 2019
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Dec 24 2345 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 357 Issued at 2343Z on 24 Dec 2019IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (25 Dec, 26 Dec, 27 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 365 km/s at 24/0017Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
24/0907Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
24/0947Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 242 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (25-26 Dec) and
at quiet levels on day three (27 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Dec to 27 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Dec 073 Predicted 25 Dec-27 Dec 074/074/074 90 Day Mean 24 Dec 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Dec 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Dec 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Dec-27 Dec 006/005-009/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Dec to 27 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 25% | 25% |
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