Viewing archive of Monday, 23 December 2019
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Dec 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 357 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Dec 2019IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (24 Dec, 25 Dec, 26 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 399 km/s at 23/0127Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
23/0915Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
23/0948Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 463 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (24 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (25 Dec, 26 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Dec to 26 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Dec 073 Predicted 24 Dec-26 Dec 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 23 Dec 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Dec 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Dec 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Dec-26 Dec 006/005-009/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Dec to 26 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 25% | 25% |
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