Viewing archive of Tuesday, 9 July 2019

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Jul 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 190 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jul 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (10 Jul, 11 Jul, 12 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 630 km/s at 09/2047Z. Total IMF reached 21 nT at 08/2215Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 09/1846Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled levels on day one (10 Jul) and quiet levels on days two and three (11 Jul, 12 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Jul to 12 Jul
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Jul 068
  Predicted   10 Jul-12 Jul 068/068/068
  90 Day Mean        09 Jul 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jul  007/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Jul  013/018
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul  011/012-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jul to 12 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%10%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%25%20%
Major-severe storm40%30%15%

All times in UTC

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