Viewing archive of Wednesday, 12 June 2019

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Jun 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 163 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jun 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (13 Jun, 14 Jun, 15 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 374 km/s at 12/1228Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 12/1111Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 12/0924Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (13 Jun), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (14 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (15 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jun to 15 Jun
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Jun 070
  Predicted   13 Jun-15 Jun 070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        12 Jun 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jun  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Jun  009/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 Jun-15 Jun  011/012-008/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jun to 15 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%20%10%
Minor storm20%05%01%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm35%20%20%
Major-severe storm50%25%15%

All times in UTC

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