Viewing archive of Wednesday, 10 October 2018

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Oct 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 283 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Oct 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (11 Oct, 12 Oct, 13 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 583 km/s at 09/2240Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 10/1108Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 10/1335Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 31197 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (11 Oct), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (12 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (13 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Oct to 13 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Oct 070
  Predicted   11 Oct-13 Oct 072/072/072
  90 Day Mean        10 Oct 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Oct  014/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Oct  012/016
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct  010/012-009/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Oct to 13 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%15%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%25%20%
Major-severe storm40%30%20%

All times in UTC

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