Viewing archive of Thursday, 13 September 2018

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Sep 13 2320 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 256 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Sep 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (14 Sep, 15 Sep, 16 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 584 km/s at 13/1903Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 13/1012Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 13/1349Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4910 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (14 Sep, 15 Sep, 16 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Sep to 16 Sep
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Sep 070
  Predicted   14 Sep-16 Sep 070/068/068
  90 Day Mean        13 Sep 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Sep  010/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Sep  013/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Sep-16 Sep  009/008-008/008-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Sep to 16 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%25%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%25%30%
Major-severe storm25%25%35%

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