Viewing archive of Sunday, 30 April 2017

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Apr 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 120 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Apr 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (01 May, 02 May, 03 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 408 km/s at 30/0003Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 30/1854Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 30/1713Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8938 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (01 May, 03 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (02 May).
III. Event Probabilities 01 May to 03 May
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Apr 077
  Predicted   01 May-03 May 075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        30 Apr 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Apr  006/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Apr  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 May-03 May  010/012-008/008-009/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 May to 03 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%15%25%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%25%30%
Major-severe storm30%20%40%

All times in UTC

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