Viewing archive of Monday, 3 April 2017

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Apr 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 93 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Apr 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at 03/1429Z from Region 2644 (N13W79). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on day one (04 Apr) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day two (05 Apr) and likely to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (06 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 466 km/s at 02/2105Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 03/0534Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 03/0841Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 53552 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (04 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (05 Apr, 06 Apr). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (04 Apr, 05 Apr) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (06 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Apr to 06 Apr
Class M70%50%35%
Class X25%15%10%
Proton25%25%15%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Apr 108
  Predicted   04 Apr-06 Apr 108/102/096
  90 Day Mean        03 Apr 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Apr  006/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Apr  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Apr-06 Apr  005/005-006/006-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Apr to 06 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%15%20%
Major-severe storm10%15%20%

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