Viewing archive of Wednesday, 1 March 2017

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Mar 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 60 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Mar 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one and two (02 Mar, 03 Mar) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day three (04 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 973 km/s at 01/1105Z. Total IMF reached 21 nT at 01/1115Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -17 nT at 01/1110Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (02 Mar), unsettled to active levels on day two (03 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (04 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Mar to 04 Mar
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Mar 081
  Predicted   02 Mar-04 Mar 081/082/081
  90 Day Mean        01 Mar 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Feb  005/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Mar  024/036
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Mar-04 Mar  016/022-013/016-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Mar to 04 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%15%
Minor storm25%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm20%30%25%
Major-severe storm60%40%25%

All times in UTC

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