Viewing archive of Thursday, 2 February 2017

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Feb 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 33 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Feb 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 Feb, 04 Feb, 05 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 755 km/s at 02/0015Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 02/0611Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 01/2114Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 17975 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on days one and two (03 Feb, 04 Feb) and unsettled levels on day three (05 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Feb to 05 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Feb 075
  Predicted   03 Feb-05 Feb 075/074/074
  90 Day Mean        02 Feb 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Feb  019/026
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Feb  017/022
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Feb-05 Feb  012/016-012/014-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Feb to 05 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%35%30%
Major-severe storm35%35%25%

All times in UTC

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