Viewing archive of Wednesday, 23 December 2015

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Dec 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 357 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Dec 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at 23/0040Z from Region 2473 (S23E49). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (24 Dec, 25 Dec, 26 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 527 km/s at 23/1343Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 23/1304Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 23/1252Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3889 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (24 Dec, 25 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (26 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Dec to 26 Dec
Class M50%50%50%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Dec 134
  Predicted   24 Dec-26 Dec 135/130/125
  90 Day Mean        23 Dec 110

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Dec  008/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Dec  007/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Dec-26 Dec  010/012-012/014-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Dec to 26 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm30%30%25%
Major-severe storm30%25%20%

All times in UTC

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