Viewing archive of Thursday, 26 November 2015

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Nov 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 330 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Nov 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Nov, 28 Nov, 29 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 291 km/s at 26/0736Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 26/1921Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 26/1755Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 418 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (27 Nov, 28 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (29 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Nov to 29 Nov
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Nov 104
  Predicted   27 Nov-29 Nov 105/105/110
  90 Day Mean        26 Nov 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Nov  001/000
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Nov  006/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 Nov-29 Nov  007/008-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Nov to 29 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm25%15%15%
Major-severe storm10%15%10%

All times in UTC

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