Viewing archive of Wednesday, 2 December 2015

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Dec 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 336 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Dec 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 02/0446Z from Region 2458 (N11W66). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one and two (03 Dec, 04 Dec) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day three (05 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 507 km/s at 01/2123Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 01/2248Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 02/1355Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1420 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and three (03 Dec, 05 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (04 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Dec to 05 Dec
Class M05%05%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Dec 095
  Predicted   03 Dec-05 Dec 100/100/095
  90 Day Mean        02 Dec 106

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Dec  011/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Dec  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Dec-05 Dec  006/005-008/008-007/006

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Dec to 05 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%15%10%
Minor storm01%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm15%30%25%
Major-severe storm15%20%20%

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