Viewing archive of Thursday, 4 June 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Jun 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 155 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jun 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
04/0947Z from Region 2361 (N16E64). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (05
Jun, 06 Jun, 07 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, ranged from about 250 to 310 km/s
during the period. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 04/0352Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 04/1408Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (05 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (06 Jun, 07 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jun to 07 Jun
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jun 118 Predicted 05 Jun-07 Jun 125/130/135 90 Day Mean 04 Jun 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jun 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jun 002/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jun-07 Jun 006/005-008/008-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jun to 07 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 20% | 30% |
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