Viewing archive of Thursday, 4 June 2015

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Jun 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 155 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jun 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 04/0947Z from Region 2361 (N16E64). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 Jun, 06 Jun, 07 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, ranged from about 250 to 310 km/s during the period. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 04/0352Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 04/1408Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (05 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (06 Jun, 07 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jun to 07 Jun
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Jun 118
  Predicted   05 Jun-07 Jun 125/130/135
  90 Day Mean        04 Jun 124

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jun  005/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Jun  002/003
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Jun-07 Jun  006/005-008/008-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jun to 07 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%15%25%
Minor storm01%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%15%
Minor storm15%25%30%
Major-severe storm10%20%30%

All times in UTC

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