Viewing archive of Friday, 8 May 2015

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 May 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 128 Issued at 2200Z on 08 May 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 08/0409Z from Region 2339 (N13E35). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 May, 10 May, 11 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 422 km/s at 07/2300Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 08/0831Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 08/0742Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (09 May, 10 May) and quiet to active levels on day three (11 May).
III. Event Probabilities 09 May to 11 May
Class M55%55%55%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 May 150
  Predicted   09 May-11 May 155/155/155
  90 Day Mean        08 May 126

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 May  006/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 May  007/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 May-11 May  006/005-006/005-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 May to 11 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%35%
Minor storm01%01%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%10%
Minor storm20%20%30%
Major-severe storm10%10%45%

All times in UTC

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