Viewing archive of Sunday, 1 February 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Feb 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 32 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Feb 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
01/1133Z from Region 2268 (S11W57). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(02 Feb, 03 Feb, 04 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
748 km/s at 01/2006Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 01/0548Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 01/1946Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (02 Feb), quiet to
active levels on day two (03 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (04 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
day one (02 Feb) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days
two and three (03 Feb, 04 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Feb to 04 Feb
| Class M | 60% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Feb 142 Predicted 02 Feb-04 Feb 135/125/125 90 Day Mean 01 Feb 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jan 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Feb 015/019 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Feb-04 Feb 016/020-012/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Feb to 04 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 35% | 35% |
| Major-severe storm | 70% | 45% | 30% |
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