Viewing archive of Saturday, 31 January 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Jan 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 31 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jan 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
31/1641Z from Region 2275 (S17W80). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on day one (01 Feb) and likely to be
moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day two (02 Feb)
and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight
chance for an X-class flare on day three (03 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
469 km/s at 31/0807Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 31/2000Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 31/2020Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (01 Feb) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (02 Feb, 03 Feb). Protons have a
chance of crossing threshold on day one (01 Feb), have a slight chance
of crossing threshold on day two (02 Feb) and have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day three (03 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Feb to 03 Feb
| Class M | 70% | 60% | 50% |
| Class X | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Proton | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Jan 154 Predicted 01 Feb-03 Feb 150/145/135 90 Day Mean 31 Jan 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jan 008/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jan 010/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb 014/018-014/015-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Feb to 03 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 30% | 25% |
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