Viewing archive of Wednesday, 7 January 2015

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Jan 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 7 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jan 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 07/1151Z from Region 2253 (S06W44). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 Jan, 09 Jan, 10 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 512 km/s at 07/0616Z. Total IMF reached 22 nT at 07/0852Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -21 nT at 07/0856Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 282 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (08 Jan), quiet to active levels on day two (09 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (10 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Jan to 10 Jan
Class M50%50%50%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 Jan 147
  Predicted   08 Jan-10 Jan 155/160/165
  90 Day Mean        07 Jan 157

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jan  011/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 Jan  028/042
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 Jan-10 Jan  015/020-013/015-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jan to 10 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%30%20%
Minor storm25%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm20%30%25%
Major-severe storm65%40%30%

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